Goldman Sachs has lifted its oil price forecasts citing ongoing Middle East disruptions, predicting Brent at ~$90 and WTI at ~$83 in Q4. The Polymarket contract for WTI crude hitting $160 in April sits at 1.1%, unchanged over the past 24 hours.
Goldman’s revised outlook, which cites prolonged supply risks from the Iran war, has drawn attention to the WTI Crude Oil price in April 2026 contract. YES shares are priced at 1.1%, implying very low probability of WTI reaching $160 by end of April. The crude oil all-time high by April 30 market shows the same odds at 1.1% YES.
Trading volume tells the story: the crude oil all-time high market has moved $2,513 in USDC over the last 24 hours. It would take just $695 to shift the odds by 5 percentage points, meaning thin liquidity leaves room for sharp swings on even small trades. The largest move in this market was a 1-point spike, suggesting cautious but watchful positioning.
Goldman’s forecast matches Citigroup’s outlook on sustained price pressure from the Middle East conflict. With only six days left until resolution, the probability of WTI hitting $160 remains very low. A YES share at 1.1¢ pays $1 if it resolves, a 90.9x return. For that bet to make sense, a trader would need to assign meaningful probability to a dramatic escalation or a major new supply disruption within the week.
Watch for OPEC+ announcements or shifts in US-Iran diplomatic relations. A breakthrough in peace talks or an unexpected production increase would move these contracts.
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
⚡ Also Impacted by This Story
