Gemini eyes prediction market challenge to Kalshi, Polymarket, secures derivatives license; shares surge

Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss' crypto exchange now holds licenses allowing it to expand into regulated derivatives and prediction markets, the fastest-growing sectors in crypto.

What to know:

• Gemini, the crypto exchange run by Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, won CFTC approval for a derivatives clearinghouse license, allowing it to clear and settle its own derivatives and prediction-market trades.
• The license, combined with Gemini’s existing designated contract market authorization, positions the company to offer a full-stack U.S. trading ecosystem spanning sports, crypto, futures, options and event-based contracts.
• The move comes as prediction markets rapidly expand, with volumes surging in 2025 and Wall Street preparing ETFs tied to the sector, while Gemini doubles down on the U.S. after exiting the U.K., European Union and Australia.

Gemini Space Station (GEMI), the crypto exchange run by Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, received U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) approval for a derivatives clearinghouse (DCO) license, allowing it to enter regulated derivatives and crypto’s fastest-growing, most-contested sector, prediction markets.

The approval allows Gemini to clear and settle trades in-house instead of depending on external providers, giving it greater control over how its prediction market products function and scale.

Gemini shares climbed about 7% following the announcement.

Prediction markets have become one of crypto's fastest-growing areas, with trading volume increasing over 300% in 2025 to $63.5 billion, and Hyperliquid, a DeFi derivatives platform, is getting ready to compete with incumbents such as Kalshi and Polymarket. Wall Street is also in, as Roundhill Investments is expected to roll out the first U.S. exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tied to prediction markets on May 5, while two other asset managers are preparing similar products.

The approval builds on the crypto firm’s December 2025 debut of a prediction marketplace via another affiliate, Gemini Titan, which received a designated contract market (DCM) authorization from the CFTC.

With DCM and DCO licenses in place, Gemini is positioned to offer a full-stack trading ecosystem spanning sport, crypto, futures, options, and event-based contracts, the company said. Gemini also expressed intentions to expand into crypto futures, options and perpetuals for U.S. users.

“Today marks a major milestone in Gemini’s marketplace expansion,” Cameron Winklevoss said in the statement, framing the development as part of a broader push toward a “super app” for financial services.

In February, Gemini made public its plans to enter the prediction markets sector and focus solely on the U.S. when it announced its exit from the U.K., European Union and Australia, which included a staff reduction of roughly 25%.

“The reality is that America has the world’s greatest capital markets and America has always been where it’s at for Gemini,” the founders said, adding that their “thesis is that prediction markets will be as big or bigger than today’s capital markets.”

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