The EU is preparing joint action on jet fuel in response to a potential aviation fuel shortage if Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz persists. The odds of Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by April 30 have dropped to 57.0% YES, down from 60% yesterday.
The market for Trump announcing a blockade lift by April 19 also fell, now at 8.5% YES. The gap between the April 19 and May 31 contracts is 64 points, which suggests traders expect meaningful developments to come after April rather than before.
Traders moved $33,928 in USDC in the last 24 hours across related markets. Market depth is $354 to move the price 5 points on the April 30 contract, leaving it vulnerable to larger trades. The biggest single move was a 4-point drop at 6:46 PM, coinciding with the EU jet fuel news.
The EU’s move points toward continued tension and economic countermeasures rather than near-term resolution. At 82¢, buying YES for a blockade lift by May 31 pays 1.22x. Anyone betting on early resolution needs to see substantial diplomatic progress in Islamabad soon.
Watch for updates from the Islamabad peace talks and any concrete EU actions or statements on the blockade. Both could move these contracts sharply in the coming days.
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Trump Announces Us Blockade Of Hormuz Lifted| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 83.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 17 | 3.4% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 19 | 8.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 57% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 4.5% | — | — | Trade → |
