Elbit Systems has been awarded $200 million in defense contracts during the ongoing Iran conflict. The probability of an Israel-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30 sits at 0.8% YES, down from 3% just 24 hours ago.
Israel’s $200 million munitions order, likely aimed at replenishing depleted stockpiles, signals preparation for continued hostilities and has contributed to a sharp drop in peace deal odds. The June 30 market is at 9.5% YES, down from 14% yesterday. The contract suggests readiness for potential conflict resumption rather than a winding-down posture.
The April 30 contract’s odds have thinned considerably: only $111 is needed to move the price 5 percentage points, which points to low conviction among traders that a peace deal will materialize before month’s end. The June contract carries higher odds and more trading volume, suggesting traders expect any diplomatic breakthrough to come later, if at all.
With $1,216 in USDC traded over 24 hours, the market has moderate interest but is susceptible to influence from relatively small trades. The largest recent move was a 2-point spike, showing the market’s sensitivity to news like these defense contracts. That a major defense contract was awarded during a ceasefire indicates Israel does not view the current pause as a permanent resolution, which weighs on near-term peace deal probability. Buying YES at 0.8¢ offers a 125x return if a peace deal is announced before the end of April, but this looks increasingly unlikely without major diplomatic developments.
Watch for statements from Donald Trump or Effie Nefrin that could shift expectations. Any changes from the U.S. State Department or announcements of new diplomatic engagements would also be significant.
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Israel X Iran Permanent Peace Deal| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.8% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 9.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 1.8% | — | — | Trade → |
