Delphint Weekly Market Insight(April 22-April 28, 2026): Global security and social unrest
Delphint9 min read·Just now--
In late April 2026, the global economy entered a phase of risk repricing under a “wartime macro” environment. The transition at the Federal Reserve and the threat of stagflation are occurring simultaneously, putting pressure on U.S. domestic demand. China’s manufacturing sector continues to show resilience through transformation, but it is now facing the challenge of imported inflation. In crypto, increasing institutional participation and the regulatory implementation of the GENIUS Act are accelerating its transition into core financial infrastructure. The chain reaction triggered by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz signals that the global economy has entered a fragile new normal dominated by security-driven narratives.
I. US Economic Situation: Policy Dilemma and Cyclical Contest Under the Threat of Stagflation
In late April 2026, the U.S. economy is walking a tightrope on the edge of stagflation and recession. Tariff-driven structural inflation is pushing the 2% target further out of reach, while a gradually cooling labor market carries latent recession risks under persistently high interest rates.
- Stock Market: The S&P 500 rose 0.5% for the week (up 4.7% year-to-date), while the Nasdaq gained 1.5% (up 6.9% year-to-date). The Magnificent Seven Index advanced 1.1% for the week (up 2.4% year-to-date), and the small-cap Russell 2000 added 0.4% (up 12.3% year-to-date).In terms of style performance, growth stocks outperformed value stocks last week, while large caps led small caps.
- Consumer Spending：Driven by higher oil prices amid the Iran conflict, spending at gas stations surged 15.5%, helping lift U.S. March retail sales by 1.7% month-over-month, above market expectations and marking the largest increase in more than a year. Excluding the impact of autos and gasoline prices, retail sales still rose 0.6% month-over-month. In addition, tax rebates from the “Big Beautiful” bill and U.S. equities reaching new record highs in April also supported consumer resilience.
- Employment: U.S. initial jobless claims remained at a low level in April. For the week ending April 18, initial claims edged up to 214,000, slightly above the expected 210,000, indicating that layoffs remain limited and the “low hiring, low firing” pattern continues. The prior week’s figure was revised to 208,000.
- Monetary Policy: Strong retail sales, steady initial jobless claims, and WTI crude remaining elevated suggest that inflation concerns still persist. According to CME futures data, rate cuts are expected to begin in the second half of next year, while no further rate hikes are currently priced in.
- Treasury Bonds: The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury rose to around 4.35%, reaching its highest level in a month, as investors positioned ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting.
Markets are closely watching Powell’s final remarks before stepping down and the appointment of his successor. If the Federal Reserve’s independence yields to political pressure, it could trigger a repeat of the runaway inflation seen in the 1970s — potentially becoming the biggest black swan for the global economy.
II. China’s Economic Situation: The Tug-of-War Between Domestic Demand Recovery and Imported Inflation Pressure
In April 2026, China’s economy continued the recovery momentum seen in the first quarter, showing notable structural strengths. This round of expansion carries a clear “dual-character” pattern: large and medium-sized enterprises achieved rapid growth through scale advantages and technology-driven gains, while small businesses, although seeing a slower pace of contraction, remained below the expansion-contraction threshold.
- Index Performance:During the first half of this week, the broader market continued to move higher under the leadership of the ChiNext Index, but pulled back in the second half. The market is currently showing an extreme level of divergence: based on daily data, the top 5% of stocks by trading activity have accounted for as much as 46% of total market turnover multiple times over the past three weeks. On a monthly basis, that figure currently stands at 43.3%.
- Industry Trend:Among Shenwan Level-1 sectors, 12 advanced while 19 declined, reflecting a market pattern in which “the narrowed tech rally and dividend leaders carried the market, while most other sectors lacked meaningful performance.”
- Market Sentiment: This week, the average daily turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets rose to RMB 2.97 trillion, up from RMB 2.80 trillion last week.
- Capital Flows: The latest margin financing and securities lending balance rose to RMB 2.72 trillion, up from RMB 2.67 trillion last week. On the ETF side, equity ETFs recorded net outflows of RMB 46.1 billion this week. By sector, power ETFs saw the largest net inflows (RMB 300 million), while non-ferrous metals ETFs posted the largest net outflows (RMB 390 million).
China’s economy is currently in a window of “external cooling, internal warming.” The recovery in domestic demand and the surge in high-tech industries have provided a solid foundation for achieving the full-year growth target of 4.5%–5.5%. However, the biggest external uncertainty remains supply-chain disruptions and imported inflation caused by global geopolitical tensions. If raw material prices continue to rise, it could not only hinder a healthy recovery in PPI, but also create a situation in which manufacturers increase output without seeing corresponding profit growth.
III. Foreign Exchange and Commodity Market:
During this week, the dominant theme in global FX markets was “extreme defensiveness.” Pricing power in currencies has shifted away from traditional growth dynamics toward geopolitical risk assessment and the aggressive application of interest rate differentials.
- US Dollar Index: The U.S. Dollar Index hovered around 98.5 after a sharp decline in the previous session, as renewed diplomatic efforts in the U.S.–Iran conflict reduced demand for safe-haven currencies.
- Gold: Gold prices fell to $4,650 per ounce, extending losses from the previous session, as investors assessed renewed diplomatic efforts to resolve the U.S.–Iran conflict, which had triggered a historic energy supply shock and intensified inflation concerns.
- Crude Oil: WTI crude oil futures rose above $97 per barrel, extending gains from the previous trading session, as markets assessed the possibility of a lasting ceasefire and the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz after Iran submitted a new proposal to the United States.
The future direction of FX markets will largely depend on the balance between “inflation differentials” and the rise or fall of the geopolitical risk premium. The U.S. dollar’s dominant position is unlikely to be challenged in the first half of 2026 unless the U.S. labor market experiences a severe collapse.
IV. Cryptocurrency Market: A Full-Scale Clash Between Safe-Haven Assets and Carry Trade Logic
In April 2026, the cryptocurrency market is undergoing one of the most profound paradigm shifts in its history: transforming from a retail sentiment-driven speculative arena into a reserve asset class for sovereign entities and institutions.
- BTC: This week, Bitcoin’s market structure delivered a clear signal of weakening momentum. After previously validating the bullish logic of “Buy Point A” and “Buy Point B,” price action failed to sustain its strength and instead broke decisively below the recent short-term consolidation center (the blue-line area), officially forming a standard technical sell signal.
- ETH: Ethereum (ETH) is also sending an unfavorable signal at the moment, with overall price action showing clear relative weakness.
- Altcoins: After nearly a week of price development, BNB’s market structure has become increasingly concerning. Against a backdrop of overall relative weakness, the recent rejection and pullback have left bulls fully on the defensive. XRP: The consolidation range is gradually narrowing.SOL: The probability of price action evolving into a “decline → consolidation → further decline” pattern has become significantly higher.
- ETF Capital Flow: During last week’s trading sessions (U.S. Eastern Time, April 20 to April 24), BTC spot ETFs recorded net inflows of $824 million, while ETH spot ETFs saw net inflows of $155 million.
- Stablecoins: As of April 27, the market capitalizations of USDT and DAI continued to trend higher overall, while USDC and USDE showed declines. The market caps of USDT, USDC, USDE, and DAI stood at $189.728 billion, $77.614 billion, $3.751 billion, and $4.421 billion, respectively.
The market’s deeper drivers have been overtaken by continued spot ETF inflows and the asset allocation strategies of mega-cap public companies. The traditional “bull-bear cycle” is gradually being replaced by an “institutional allocation cycle.”
V. Key Global News This Week: The Institutionalized Journey Under Institutional Leadership
- Crypto Legislation and Regulatory Dynamics
U.S. Clarity Act: The legislation is approaching its final May deadline. Trump publicly backed the bill at Mar-a-Lago, pushing back against banking lobby groups and voicing strong support for stablecoin legislation.
Global Tightening: China’s eight government agencies jointly issued new rules banning online marketing services for virtual currencies and illegal financial activities. Brazil moved to block prediction platforms such as Polymarket, while South Africa is considering bringing crypto assets under foreign exchange controls.
Policy Breakthroughs: Russia passed the first reading of a bill to legalize cryptocurrency use for foreign trade settlements while prohibiting domestic payments. Thailand also eased licensing rules for digital asset derivatives services.
- Geopolitics and Macro Security
U.S.–Iran Situation: Iran delivered a “three-phase” negotiation proposal, insisting that nuclear talks can only proceed after the war ends and Strait governance issues are resolved. Trump denied claims that the White House Correspondents’ Dinner shooting incident was linked to Iran.
Investment Review: China’s National Development and Reform Commission legally blocked a foreign acquisition of the Manus project.
- Tech Giants and Financial Innovation
Apple Leadership Change: Tim Cook is set to step down as CEO in September and transition to Executive Chairman, with John Ternus expected to succeed him.
AI Expansion Bet: Google plans to invest up to $40 billion more into Anthropic and provide 5 gigawatts of computing capacity support.
Payments and CBDC: The United States introduced the PACE Act, which would allow non-bank payment firms to access the Federal Reserve system. India is piloting the use of the digital rupee (e-rupee) to distribute $80 billion in welfare payments.
Summary
The summer of 2026 is destined to be anything but calm. Amid the fractures in the global order, only participants with exceptional resilience and sharp intuition will be able to survive — and profit — from this major cyclical transformation.
Geopolitical conflict is no longer confined to the battlefield. It now reaches directly into everyday life across the world through energy prices, cross-border sanctions, cyberattacks, and ideological influence. For decision-makers, risk management must move beyond traditional linear thinking. A drought in one region or an isolated shooting incident elsewhere may both be symptoms of a deeper macroeconomic chain of cause and effect.
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