Crypto liquidations reached $412 million in the last 24 hours, with $273 million in long positions wiped out. The Polymarket contract for Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 in April sits at 15% YES, as geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran add pressure.
The liquidation wave tracks directly to market anxiety around the US-Iran conflict over the Strait of Hormuz. Bitcoin’s price remains sensitive to this geopolitical risk, with traders watching for a ceasefire collapse. April 30 odds point to a potential catalyst for Bitcoin to test new lows in the coming weeks, with the market pricing a 15% probability of hitting $60,000.
Order book depth is thin, and actual USDC volumes are low. This means smaller trades can move prices disproportionately. The largest single move in the last 24 hours was a 4-point drop at 2:30 PM, likely from a concentrated sell order.
For traders, this liquidation wave looks more like genuine risk-off sentiment than a technical shakeout. With Bitcoin priced at 15¢ for a YES share to hit $60,000 in April, a 6.67x return is available if the market slides further. The geopolitical situation means rapid shifts are possible, especially if diplomatic talks break down.
Watch for announcements from President Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Statements on the US-Iran conflict or monetary policy could move Bitcoin’s price quickly.
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