Circle shares boosted by Middle East tensions, rising oil, fading rate cut hopes, says Mizuho
The stock has risen about 20% since the U.S. strikes on Iran over the weekend.
By Will Canny, AI Boost|Edited by Stephen AlpherUpdated Mar 3, 2026, 5:57 p.m. Published Mar 3, 2026, 5:51 p.m.
Make us preferred on Google
What to know:
- Circle shares have risen another 20% this week after Israeli and U.S. airstrikes on Iran led to a spike in the oil price.
- Mizuho said rising oil prices may stoke inflation and reduce the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts, a tailwind for Circle’s reserve income.
- The bank raised its Circle price target to $100 from $90, while reiterating its neutral rating on the stock.
Shares of stablecoin issuer Circle (CRCL) have risen over 20% this week, outperforming the broader market following Israeli and U.S. airstrikes on Iran over the weekend.
Japanese bank Mizuho attributed the rally in part to a sharp rise in oil prices, as tensions in the Middle East exploded. Higher crude prices could rekindle inflationary pressures, lowering expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.
That dynamic matters for Circle. The company earns the bulk of its revenue from interest income on the U.S. government debt it holds as reserves backing its USDC stablecoin. Higher interest rates translate into greater yield on those reserves, directly supporting revenue. Conversely, rate cuts compress that income stream.
Since U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran over the weekend, WTI crude has climbed roughly 7%–8% on elevated geopolitical risk and supply disruption concerns.
Crypto markets were jolted at the outbreak of war in the Middle East on Saturday, with bitcoin BTC$68,278.56 sliding sharply in early trading amid a broader risk-off move, but prices have since stabilized.
Analysts Dan Dolev and Alexander Jenkins estimated that reduced expectations for rate cuts add about 1% to their Circle 2026 and 2027 revenue forecasts.
More importantly, the analysts pointed to a doubling in the “right tail risk" of a no-rate-cut scenario in 2026, according to Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FedWatch data, a shift that could further support Circle’s valuation multiple.
A roughly 5% rise in bitcoin over the past 24 hours may also be contributing to positive sentiment. The largest cryptocurrency is currently trading around $68,100.
The bank raised its Circle price target to $100 from $90, while maintaining a neutral rating on the shares. The stock was trading 6% higher at $101.90 at publication time.
While higher-for-longer rates are a near-term positive, longer-term revenue growth could face pressure as stablecoins become increasingly commoditized, the report added.
Circle shares gained more than 45% last week in a violent short squeeze following fourth quarter earnings. That move snapped what had been a brutal 80% drawdown from record highs hit last year.
Read more: Circle's post-earnings surge nears 50% as short squeeze, not strong financials, fuels rally
CircleStablecoinsIranOilMizuho BankAI Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk's full AI Policy.More For You
Pudgy Penguins: Challenging the Pokemon and Disney Legacy in the Global IP Race
By CoinDesk ResearchFeb 27, 2026
Commissioned byPudgy Penguins
CoinDesk Research looks into how Pudgy Penguins disrupts traditional toys market via a phygital model. With 2M+ units sold, they scale via global partnerships and events.
What to know:
- Disrupting a Stagnant Market: Pudgy Penguins is utilizing a "Negative CAC" model to challenge the traditional $31.7B licensed toy industry by treating physical merchandise as a profitable user acquisition tool rather than just a final product.
More For You
Bitcoin attempting to make a stand as global stock markets melt down on Iran war
By Helene Braun|Edited by Stephen Alpher1 hour ago
Having already plunged in the months leading up to the Middle East conflict, crypto markets so far aren't making new lows this week.
What to know:
- Crypto markets are showing a small bit of relative strength on Tuesday as equity markets fall sharply in response to the Iran war.
- Bitcoin has retaken $68,000 after having fallen to nearly $66,000 earlier in the day.
- Having run up to historic highs ahead of the Middle East conflict, precious metals are plunging along with the stock market.
International finance watchdog warns stablecoins are increasingly used in sanctions evasion and money laundering
5 minutes ago
AI agents will be primary users of blockchain, NEAR co-founder says
31 minutes ago
Aave governance rift deepens as major governance group exits $26 billion DeFi protocol
34 minutes ago
Eric Trump’s American Bitcoin buys 11,298 ASIC miners, increasing mining capacity by 12%
42 minutes agoBank of Japan expands blockchain settlement sandbox and says CBDC efforts are ongoing
50 minutes ago
Bitcoin attempting to make a stand as global stock markets melt down on Iran war
1 hour agoTop StoriesCFTC chief Selig to clear path for U.S. perpetual futures in coming weeks
2 hours ago
End of bitcoin 'HODL': public miners going all-in on AI, signaling more BTC selling
2 hours ago‘Scam token’ case against Uniswap dismissed by U.S. district judge in NYC
6 hours ago
Bitcoin supply approaching 20 million: The final million will take another 114 years to mine
9 hours ago
Dollar surge pressures crypto markets after escalation in Iran conflict
6 hours ago
Core Scientific sells $175 million in bitcoin as AI pivot accelerates
9 hours agoIn this article
BTCBTC$68,278.56◢1.33%
