China’s focus on energy security and tech advancement amid the Iran conflict is dragging diplomatic prospects lower. The US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30 market sits at 1.8% YES, down from 7% yesterday.
The April 30 nuclear deal market dropped from 68% a week ago to 1.8% YES. China’s support for Iran makes diplomatic resolution harder to reach. The diplomatic meeting market moved to 16.1% YES for a meeting by June 30, up from 9% yesterday.
Iran’s enriched uranium April 30 market fell to 0.6% YES, down from 65% a week ago with 6 days left. Traders see almost no chance Iran surrenders its stockpile by then. The June 30 market at 21.5% YES prices in some possibility over the next two months.
The nuclear deal market has $107,556 in face value but only $7,699 in actual USDC traded. The order book is thin: $1,550 moves the price 5 points. The uranium April 30 market is thicker, requiring $9,561 to shift odds by 5 points.
China’s strategy points toward prioritizing tech competition over facilitating diplomacy. At 2¢, a YES share on the nuclear deal pays 50x. Given current tensions and China’s position, a last-minute deal looks extremely unlikely.
Watch for US-Iran back-channel communications or IAEA activity. A sudden ceasefire or a shift in China’s energy strategy could move these markets.
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Us Iran Nuclear Deal April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 1.8% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 16.8% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.6% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 39.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 21.5% | — | — | Trade → |
