## Market Snapshot
– Strait of Hormuz Traffic by May: May 15 at 1.4% YES, down from 4% 24 hours ago. May 31 at 21.5% YES, down from 28%. – Trump’s Hormuz Blockade Announcement: 40.5% YES, slightly decreased from 42% 24 hours ago. – Strait of Hormuz Ship Transit: 64.5% YES for May 31, down from 69% 24 hours ago.
## Key Takeaways
– CENTCOM’s recent enforcement activities appear to significantly reduce the likelihood of normal Strait of Hormuz traffic by mid-May. – The ongoing blockade suggests that an announcement by Trump to lift the blockade by May end is less likely. – The reduction in ship transit probabilities indicates that achieving 20 ship transits in a single day by May end is increasingly viewed as unlikely.
## Article Body
U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) has intensified its enforcement of a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, redirecting 61 commercial vessels and disabling four others. This action is part of the broader U.S.-Iran conflict ongoing since February 2026, following an air campaign that resulted in the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The blockade, aimed at crippling Iran’s ability to fund regional proxies, continues despite a nominal ceasefire in place since April. The enforcement actions highlight the U.S. commitment to maintaining pressure on Iran, even as international actors like France and Britain face resistance from Tehran over their naval presence.
## Market Interpretation
The latest enforcement actions by CENTCOM are consistent with a scenario where normal traffic in the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted, supportive of a NO outcome for markets expecting a return to normalcy by May 15. This situation exerts moderate impact on the likelihood of a Trump announcement lifting the blockade, suggesting continued enforcement. The actions also reduce the likelihood of 20 ships transiting the Strait on a single day by May 31, reflecting high impact on this market.
## What to Watch
Observers should monitor any statements from the U.S. administration or CENTCOM that might indicate changes in blockade enforcement. Key diplomatic developments, especially involving Iran and international mediators, could alter the current dynamic. Additionally, the presence of French and British warships and any Iranian responses could play critical roles in shaping future market expectations.
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Strait Of Hormuz Traffic Returns To Normal May 15| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15 | 1.4% | — | — | View market → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 20.5% | — | — | View market → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 40.5% | — | — | View market → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 64.5% | — | — | View market → |
| May 31 | 27.5% | — | — | View market → |
| May 31 | 36% | — | — | View market → |
| May 31 | 16.5% | — | — | View market → |
