Ceasefire odds by April 7 are at 1% YES, down from 12% a week ago. Talks involve the US, Iran, and mediators pushing for a 45-day ceasefire to restart negotiations.
Traders remain skeptical. The April 7 market is nearly flat, showing doubt about immediate progress. The April 15 and April 30 markets show slight optimism, with odds at 6% and 18% YES, respectively.
Traders expect movement in late April or May. Odds jump 19 points between April 30 and May 31, suggesting a potential catalyst.
Trading volume hit $431,402 in USDC across all ceasefire markets yesterday. The April 7 market’s $22,948 in USDC shows thin liquidity — $12,352 moves it 5 points. In contrast, April 30 requires $19,925 for the same move, indicating more depth.
Ceasefire talks face hurdles. Iran’s rejection of US demands and insistence on permanent guarantees keep odds low for a quick resolution. Trump’s deadline could escalate tensions. At 1¢, a YES share for April 7 pays $1 if resolved — a 100x return. Belief in a rapid breakthrough within four days is needed.
Watch for last-minute changes from Trump or intermediaries like Oman or Qatar. Trump’s ultimatum deadline is Tuesday, April 7, at 8 PM ET. Any shift towards “productive” or “deal” could impact odds.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.1% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 6.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 17.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 36.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 51.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 68.5% YES
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Add us on Google Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information, see our Editorial Policy. Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 7 | 1.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 15 | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 17.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 36.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 51.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 68.5% | — | — | Trade → |
