Brent crude oil prices have surged past $106 per barrel as tensions between the US and Iran escalate in the Strait of Hormuz, with the “Crude Oil all time high by April 30” market currently priced at 1% YES.
Market reaction
The Strait of Hormuz market, which tracks whether traffic will normalize by the end of April, has grown more pessimistic. With six days left, traders appear doubtful of a quick resolution given the latest geopolitical friction. The “WTI Crude Oil Price in April 2026” market could see more activity as supply disruption risk grows.
Volume and liquidity are thin. The all-time-high market has seen $2,513 in USDC traded over the past 24 hours, with just $695 needed to move the price by 5 percentage points. Even small trades can shift the odds meaningfully at that depth. The largest move in the past day was a 1-point increase at 5:31 AM.
Why it matters
If the situation in the Strait of Hormuz worsens, oil prices could spike further. A YES share in the all-time-high market costs 1¢ and pays $1 if crude exceeds its record, a 100x return. That bet requires a severe escalation, such as a full closure of the Strait or major OPEC+ supply cuts.
What to watch
New sanctions, OPEC+ announcements, or military developments in the Strait of Hormuz. The next few days could affect both oil price contracts and related geopolitical markets on Polymarket.
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