Bitcoin’s refusal to fall signals crypto's underlying strength even as war risks linger

Your day-ahead look for March 25, 2026

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By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Bitcoin and the broader crypto market are holding firm alongside U.S. stock futures as oil prices, bond yields and the Dollar Index ease on signs that ceasefire talks between the U.S. and Iran could begin as early as Thursday.

Still, nothing is confirmed, and it may be too soon to position for a full return to normalcy, according to some observers.

"We are not geopolitical experts, but we would have thought Iran would have maximum leverage of high energy prices going into any negotiation," analysts at ING said. "Thus, it is probably too early to expect any big drop in energy prices or a much softer dollar this week."

Skepticism remains on the Iranian side as well. According to Axios, officials have told Pakistan, Egypt and Turkey that recent U.S. military movements have deepened suspicions that Trump’s peace proposal may be just a ruse.

Macro conditions are also turning less supportive. The U.S. money market curve has now priced out any Fed easing this year, a sharp shift from earlier expectations of at least two 25-basis-point cuts, which were seen as a key bullish catalyst for BTC and other risk assets.

On the crypto front, the news flow hasn’t helped either. Circle Internet’s (CRCL) stock slid Tuesday after a leaked draft of the Clarity Act suggested limits on paying interest on idle stablecoin balances. Meanwhile, Arkham Intelligence reported that Bhutan may be selling roughly $30 million worth of BTC, with the government still holding 4,453 coins valued at about $315.9 million.

Despite these headwinds, bitcoin continues to hold above $70,000, with dips proving short-lived. A market that refuses to fall on negative news often signals underlying strength, potentially setting the stage for a larger move higher. Dynamics of bitcoin's impending options expiry on Friday point to a potential for a bounce to $75,000. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today

What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

• Crypto
  • March 25, 4:10 p.m.: Fed Gov. Stephen Miran discussion "Conversation with Federal Reserve Governor Stephen I. Miran" at the Digital Asset Summit 2026, New York.
• Macro
  • March 25, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Import Prices MoM for February est. 0.2% (Prev. 0.2%); Export Prices MoM (Prev. 0.6%)
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
  • Nothing scheduled.

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

• Governance votes & calls
  • Gitcoin DAO is voting on a request from the treasury to fund DAO operations for 2026 covering governance, builder engagement, and ecosystem growth. Voting ends March 25.
  • Decentraland is voting to add a new location to Decentraland's Points of Interest list. Voting ends March 25.
• Unlocks
  • March 25: Humanity (H) to unlock 4.19% of its circulating supply worth $10.1 million.
• Token Launches
  • No major launches.

Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

• Day 3 of 7: Polish Blockchain Week (Warsaw)
• Day 2 of 3: Digital Asset Summit 2026 (New York City)
• March 25: Crypto Assets Conference (Frankfurt, Germany)

Market Movements

• BTC is up 2.21% from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday at $71,509.33 (24hrs: +0.68%)
• ETH is up 2.99% at $2,184.78 (24hrs: +1.43%)
• CoinDesk 20 is up 2.73% at 2,065.01 (24hrs: +0.93%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 7 bps at 2.74%
• BTC funding rate is at 0.0005% (0.4960% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is down 0.15% at 99.29
• Gold futures are up 3.13% at $4,536.90
• Silver futures are up 4.38% at $72.31
• Nikkei 225 closed up 2.87% at 53,749.62
• Hang Seng closed up 1.09% at 25,335.95
• FTSE 100 is up 0.85% at 10,049.44
• Euro Stoxx 50 is up 1.39% at 5,658.96
• DJIA closed on Tuesday down 0.18% at 46,124.06
• S&P 500 closed down 0.37% at 6,556.37
• Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.84% at 21,761.89
• S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.18% at 31,941.59
• S&P Latin America 40 closed up 0.43% at 3,480.97
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 6 bps at 4.39%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.68% at 6,651.25
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.86% at 24,422.75
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 0.67% at 46,727.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 58.97% (0.16%)
• Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03055 (-0.04%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 977 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $33.72
• Total fees: 2.5 BTC / $175,777
• CME Futures Open Interest: 116,345 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 15.7 oz.
• BTC vs gold market cap: 4.77%

Technical Analysis

• The chart shows daily swings in the bitcoin-gold ratio since July last year.
• The ratio has bounced 23% this month, signaling bitcoin's outperformance relative to gold.
• However, the broader bitcoin bear market is still intact and the ratio had yet to top the trendline representing the slide since August 2025.

Crypto Equities

• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Tuesday at $181.04 (-9.76%), +2.94% at $186.36 in pre-market
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $8.25 (-7.41%), +3.52% at $8.54
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $14.33 (-0.28%), +2.72% at $14.72
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $16.85 (+1.63%), +2.43% at $17.26
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.58 (-4.01%), +2.61% at $9.83
• Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD): closed at $7.20 (-11.33%), +6.39% at $7.66
• CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): closed at $38.87 (-1.35%)
• Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $101.17 (-20.11%), +3.04% at $104.25
• Bullish (BLSH): closed at $37.37 (-5.51%), +1.61% at $37.97

Crypto Treasury Companies

• Strategy (MSTR): closed at $136.25 (-1.41%), +2.97% at $140.29
• Sharplink (SBET): closed at $7.17 (-4.53%), +3.63% at $7.43
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $21.30 (-1.84%), +2.58% at $21.85
• Strive Asset Management, LLC (ASST): closed at $9.93 (-4.89%), +2.01% at $10.13
• Upexi (UPXI): closed at $1.11 (-5.13%), +2.70% at $1.14
• Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.20 (+1.69%)

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily net flows: -$66.6 million
• Cumulative net flows: $56.31 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flows: -$40.7 million
• Cumulative net flows: $11.7 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~5.79 million

Source: Farside Investors

While You Were Sleeping

• United States Said to Have Sent Iran a Plan to End the Middle East War (New York Times): The U.S. is said to have sent a 15-point plan to Iran for a potential ceasefire, offering sanctions relief in exchange for nuclear dismantlement and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
• Iran War Could Be Making of the Petroyuan, Deutsche Bank Says (Bloomberg): The war in Iran is testing the U.S. dollar’s role as the currency for the global oil trade and engendering a shift to China's yuan, according to Deutsche Bank
• Clarity Act stablecoin yield language hammers Coinbase, Circle shares (CoinDesk): The latest Senate draft of the Clarity Act would ban yield payments for simply holding a stablecoin, allowing for activity-based rewards only.
• Ripple taps Singapore's central bank sandbox to test stablecoin-powered trade finance with RLUSD (CoinDesk): Ripple is testing the use of its RLUSD stablecoin in Singapore’s MAS BLOOM sandbox in a bid to speed up and automate cross-border payments.

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