Bitcoin’s rally runs into 'sell the news' risk ahead of Fed decision
Two Prime data shows post-meeting weakness dominates, even as markets price a Fed hold and limited rate cuts ahead.
By James Van Straten|Edited by Oliver KnightUpdated Mar 18, 2026, 10:58 a.m. Published Mar 18, 2026, 10:40 a.m.
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What to know:
- Bitcoin has fallen after seven of eight 2025 FOMC meetings, highlighting a consistent “sell the news” pattern despite varying policy outcomes.
- Futures markets price just one 25 bps cut this year, while rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions risk keeping inflation elevated and limiting Fed flexibility
Bitcoin heads into the March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting with strong momentum, trading above $74,000 after eight consecutive daily gains. However, data compiled by bitcoin lender Two Prime suggests this strength may mask a recurring pattern, FOMC meetings have historically acted as short term bearish catalysts for BTC.
Looking at 2025, bitcoin posted negative returns in the 48 hours following seven of eight FOMC meetings. Even in May, when BTC rallied sharply, the broader trend points to consistent post meeting weakness regardless of whether the Fed held rates or shifted policy direction. This reinforces the idea that the event itself, rather than the outcome, drives volatility.
The upcoming decision is unlikely to deliver surprises. Markets are pricing a near certainty, around 99%, that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady in the 350 to 375 basis point range. Meanwhile, the futures market is only pricing in a single 25 basis point rate cut by the end of the year, reinforcing a higher for longer backdrop. Even with a new Federal Reserve chair, Kevin Warsh, expected to take over in June.
Macro risks further complicate the picture. Escalating conflict in the Middle East and oil prices hovering around $100 a barrel are likely to put upward pressure on CPI inflation numbers, limiting the Fed’s flexibility to ease policy on top of a weakening jobs market.
With bitcoin entering the meeting in a buoyant state, the risk shifts toward a classic sell the news reaction.
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Bitcoin holds steady at $74,000 as traders turn cautious before Fed meeting
By Oliver Knight, Omkar Godbole|Edited by Sheldon Reback23 minutes ago
BTC consolidated with subdued volatility, while derivatives positioning and macro uncertainty signaled cautious market sentiment.
What to know:
- Bitcoin is hovering around $74,200 after peaking near $76,000 on Tuesday, with trading volume down 33%, suggesting a pause in bullish momentum as traders take profits and await signals for a clearer direction.
- Stalled futures open interest and slightly negative funding rates across major tokens indicate reduced appetite for new longs and a tilt toward defensive or short positioning ahead of the Fed meeting.
- Markets remain in a risk-sensitive holding pattern due to geopolitical tensions and Fed uncertainty, even as altcoins like ZEC and MORPHO outperform and the altcoin season index hits a six-month high.
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