Bitcoin’s $78K trap: Why a minor BTC dip can revive short-term holder panic

The Bitcoin [BTC] Spot demand has been relatively restrained as prices approached the $81k resistance zone in recent days. AMBCrypto had warned that negative Funding Rates and increased leverage amplified the risks of price volatility. Long-term holders were not under severe stress, but the price was testing the $80.2k short-term holder realized price. This area has acted as resistance, and BTC bulls have not yet managed to flip the STH cost basis to support. Meanwhile, the bearish price trends have left Bitcoin treasury companies with sizeable unrealized losses. It has prompted some, such as miner Riot Platforms, to go on a selling spree. Bitcoin: $80k can ease immediate risk While long-term holders remained comfortable, expanding speculative positioning can increase near-term price volatility. Short-term holders have been under considerable pressure in the past three months.   The STH loss pressure reflects the intensity of unrealized losses—the higher the metric, the more underwater this cohort is. The metric peaked during the early February crash, and short-term holders faced hefty unrealized losses throughout April. The recent rally has eased their position, and the loss pressure was at 0% for five consecutive days. This has the potential to ease the selling pressure from underwater short-term holders. However, a Bitcoin price dip below the $78k-$79k region would revive STH loss pressure. The analyst also used the falling short-term holder supply share percentage to conclude that the share of young coins in the supply is shrinking. This factor also alleviated the risk of selling to recent buyers. It is still too early to confirm market strength Analyst Amr Taha noted that short-term holders realized profits have exceeded 7,000 BTC five separate times since mid-April. Despite this profit-taking, Bitcoin has not experienced a sizable setback from the $80k psychological level. CEO of Alphractal, Joao Wedson, reiterated the warning that it was too early to conclude bull market conditions were back. The realized cap impulse metric has not yet climbed above zero. Since the metric uses capital flow in its calculations, its inability to climb into positive territory despite the rally in recent months was concerning for the bulls. Despite the short-term holder loss pressure evaporating and BTC absorbing the supply above $75k, former resistance, investors must remain cautious of a bear market rally. Final Summary The short-term holder loss pressure, combined with a decreased supply of young coins, can help ease selling pressure. The realized cap impulse warned investors to remain cautious of a bear market rally.