Bitcoin's $76,000 breakout fails but a rare signal is hinting at major market bottom

Derivatives funding rates have now remained negative for 46 days, a streak last seen following the FTX crash which marked the bottom of 2022's crypto winter.

What to know:

• Bitcoin briefly topped the key $76,000 level before reversing to $74,000, extending a two-month struggle to sustain a true breakout.
• Funding rates on Binance's bitcoin perpetuals have remained negative for 46 days, even as open interest rises, indicating persistent bearish positioning.
• Such extended risk-off regimes, marked by crowded short trades, have historically preceded sharp upside moves and attractive entry points, K33 Research's Vetle Lunde said.

Bitcoin BTC$74,101.45 started the day with a promising chance for a breakout, but the rally fizzled out at a familiar brick wall that has kept a lid on prices for more than two months.

After briefly topping $76,000 — a key resistance level — the largest crypto reversed course, slipping below $74,000 later in the session. It still held onto a 1.3% gain over the past 24 hours, recently changing hands near $74,300.

Ether (ETH) followed a similar path, pulling back from above $2,400, but still outperformed, advancing 2.5% daily.

Traditional markets saw no such reversal, with the Nasdaq closing at its session high, up 2%. The S&P 500 rose 1.2% and now stands within a handful of points of hitting a new record high — a sharp contrast to bitcoin, which remains about 40% below its record of $126,000.

Still, the conditions are ripe for a squeeze higher in crypto even as Tuesday’s breakout didn’t hold.

According to Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33 Research, funding rates on Binance’s bitcoin perpetuals have remained negative for 11 consecutive periods despite the recent rally, signaling traders are still leaning bearish even as prices push higher. At the same time, open interest has been rising, suggesting new short positions are being added rather than closed, he said.

That combination has historically set the stage for sharp upside moves, he said.

The 30-day average funding rate has now been negative for 46 straight days, Lunde added, matching the extended bearish positioning seen during past market stress periods, such as after the FTX crash in late 2022 and the mid-2021 bear market when China banned bitcoin mining.

"Comparable risk-off regimes have historically been attractive entry points for BTC," Lunde said, as crowded short trades were forced to unwind.

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