Bitcoin has pulled back from $79,500 amid a broader crypto selloff triggered by surging oil prices. The probability of Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 in April sits at ? YES.
Market reaction
Geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have pushed oil prices past $100 per barrel, sending bearish pressure across crypto markets as traders price in potential economic fallout. The Bitcoin price in April market is where most of this action is concentrated, with bets on a further dip to $60,000.
Other sub-markets for Bitcoin’s April price are also shifting lower, with odds reflecting growing skepticism about Bitcoin holding current levels. The term structure points to traders positioning for short-term volatility rather than longer-term directional moves, consistent with a fast-changing geopolitical situation.
Why it matters
The oil-driven selloff is weighing directly on near-term Bitcoin price expectations. But the Bitcoin price predictions for 2026 market has barely moved, holding at 4.9% YES probability. Longer-term bullish positioning hasn’t cracked, even as short-term sentiment deteriorates.
What to watch
The market is thin: $2,022 in USDC traded in the last 24 hours, and it takes only $1,589 to move the price 5 points. That kind of shallow order book means relatively small capital can produce outsized moves.
Current pricing at ? YES offers a payout of ? if Bitcoin hits $60,000 in April, a high-risk, high-reward position that depends on continued geopolitical instability and macroeconomic pressure.
Key signals to track: Michael Saylor’s buying activity, Jerome Powell’s public statements, and any shifts in US-Iran tensions that could move oil prices further and feed back into crypto.
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