Bitcoin climbed above $78.7K, and the market for Bitcoin hitting a new all-time high by June 30 is at 4% YES, up from 3% twenty-four hours ago.
Market reaction
Easing US-Iran tensions have helped Bitcoin recover. The ceasefire and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz calmed fears that had previously pushed Bitcoin down to $65,834. The Bitcoin all-time high by June 30 market ticked up modestly. The September 30 and December 31 contracts sit at 10% and 18% YES, respectively, and have barely moved.
Why it matters
The term structure shows a notable jump between the September 30 and December 31 contracts, which suggests traders expect a catalyst in late 2026, possibly sustained ETF inflows or regulatory developments. The market predicting Bitcoin reaching $88,000 by April 26 sits at a negligible 0.2% YES.
What to watch
The market’s combined face value is $8,027, with actual USDC traded at $917, showing low order book depth. It takes just $959 to move the June 30 odds by 5 points, so these markets are thin. The largest recent move was a 2-point spike in the September 30 contract.
A YES share priced at 4¢ offers a 25x return if Bitcoin hits a new all-time high by June 30. That bet assumes a continued rally and no major geopolitical disruptions.
Watch for announcements from Michael Saylor or regulatory changes from the U.S. Treasury. Either could shift Bitcoin’s trajectory and move these contracts.
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Bitcoin All Time High| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 3.6% | — | — | Trade → |
| September 30 | 9.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 18% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 20-26 | 0.2% | — | — | Trade → |
