Miner reserves have dropped by 61K BTC since the cycle began. Bitcoin staying above $62,000 on April 17 is at 99.9% YES.
Riot Platforms, Marathon Digital, and Core Scientific are offloading Bitcoin holdings to fund pivots into AI and high-performance computing. This selling pressure follows the 2024 halving, which cut the block subsidy and pushed mining difficulty to record highs, forcing miners to restructure. Meanwhile, AntPool miner balances are up, which may indicate consolidation by non-U.S. miners.
The Bitcoin price on April 17 market shows 99.9% YES on holding above $62,000, even with increased miner selling. The April 13-19 market shows a similar picture: the April 13 contract sits at 1.9% YES, meaning traders see little chance of a sharp drop in the near term.
These markets collectively trade a daily face value over $1.5M, with actual USDC volume around $1.5M, showing real liquidity. The largest single move in the last 24 hours was a 1-point rise in the April 13 market, indicating controlled volatility despite the miner sell-off.
The drop in miner reserves has introduced some uncertainty, but the market’s 99.9% confidence reads this as a temporary adjustment, not a structural shift. At current odds, buying YES shares offers negligible returns, which prices in stability rather than volatility.
Watch for announcements from BlackRock or MicroStrategy. A large purchase or strategic pivot from either could move these markets. Regulatory changes or macroeconomic shifts affecting Bitcoin’s price would also matter.
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Bitcoin Price On April 14| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 14 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 13 | 1.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 15 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 19 | 99.6% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 16 | 99.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 17 | 99.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 3.4% | — | — | Trade → |
| September 30 | 10% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 17.5% | — | — | Trade → |
