President Biden emphasized the success of the U.S. blockade and military operations against Iran. The Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by May 15 sits at 14.5% YES, down from 20% yesterday.
Biden’s comments point to continued U.S. military pressure on Iran’s capabilities and a sustained blockade. The May 15 market at 14.5% prices in deep skepticism about a rapid return to normal maritime traffic. The May 31 market on whether Trump announces the blockade lifted is at 54.5% YES, down from 72% a day ago.
The May 15 market has $36,459 in daily actual USDC volume, with $4,658 needed to move the price 5 points, indicating moderate liquidity. The largest move was a 2-point spike. The May 31 blockade market, with $95,253 in actual USDC volume, has dropped from 90% a week ago, a steep decline in confidence that the blockade ends soon.
Biden’s remarks work against any quick resolution, and traders should weigh that when pricing normalization timelines. A YES share at 14.5¢ for May 15 offers a potential 6.9x return if traffic normalizes, though the political signals are running hard in the other direction.
Watch for any shifts in Pentagon or White House statements on the blockade. A change in operational language could move both markets quickly.
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Strait Of Hormuz Traffic Returns To Normal May 15| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15 | 14.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | 54.5% | — | — | Trade → |
