Bernstein likens Strategy to a ‘bitcoin central bank of last resort’ as institutional demand strengthens BTC capital base

Analysts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein said bitcoin is developing a more resilient ownership structure as institutional capital flows through exchange-traded funds and corporate treasury strategies reshape the market.

In a Monday note to clients, the analysts led by Gautam Chhugani said BTC has held up well during the recent Middle East conflict, outperforming traditional assets such as gold and global equity indices. Bitcoin rose roughly 7% last week, while Ethereum climbed about 9%, according to the report.

The analysts argue that maturity within the spot Bitcoin ETF cohort and demand from large corporate treasury buyers have transformed the asset’s investor base, reducing reliance on speculative retail capital and strengthening long-term prospects.

‘Bitcoin central bank of last resort’

A key contributor to that shift is Strategy, which Bernstein described as functioning as a “Bitcoin central bank of last resort” through its aggressive accumulation model.

The company has continued buying bitcoin through recent market volatility, adding more 66,231 BTC so far this year at an average cost near $85,000, the analysts said. Following it latest 8-K filing on Monday, Strategy's total holdings now stand above 761,000 BTC — valued at around $56 billion.

Strategy has also expanded financing structures tied to its bitcoin strategy, including preferred securities designed to attract income-focused investors. The firm’s STRC product pays an 11.5% dividend and has seen weekly trading volumes climb above $2 billion, according to the report. Capital raised through those instruments has helped fund additional bitcoin purchases.

Bernstein said the company’s balance sheet remains heavily backed by the crypto asset, with roughly $57 billion in bitcoin and liquid cash against about $17 billion in debt.

At the same time, institutional demand has also accelerated through spot Bitcoin ETFs. Analysts estimate ETFs have absorbed about $2.1 billion in inflows over the past three weeks, leaving year-to-date outflows at roughly $460 million against a total ETF asset base of about $92 billion.

Those funds now control approximately 6.1% of the total bitcoin supply, according to Bernstein’s analysis.

Diamond hands

The report also highlights the persistence of long-term holders as another stabilizing force in the market. Coins that have remained inactive for more than one year now account for roughly 60% of the circulating supply, a sign that a large share of investors view bitcoin primarily as a store-of-value asset.

Taken together, the analysts said these structural changes are strengthening bitcoin’s capital base even after periods of volatility. Roughly 14% of the total supply is now held by institutional vehicles, including ETFs, corporate treasuries, and governments.

Earlier this year, Bernstein argued that bearish narratives around bitcoin — including concerns about its four-year cycle and competition with gold — represented what the firm called the “weakest bitcoin bear case in history.” The firm at the time reiterated its long-term price target of $150,000 for 2026.

Bitcoin was trading near $70,000 when that forecast was reiterated in February. The asset is currently changing hands for around $73,600, according to The Block’s BTC price page.

Gautam Chhugani maintains long positions in various cryptocurrencies.