Beirut MPs are advocating for the removal of all armed groups from the capital, including Hezbollah. The Israel military action in Greater Beirut market has seen odds drop by 15% in response.
A delegation met with President Aoun following the “Beirut Free of Weapons” conference, proposing complete disarmament of the city and stronger law enforcement. Aoun described the ceasefire as a key moment for Lebanon’s stability. The Israel military action in Greater Beirut contract reflected this, with odds decreasing by 15%.
South of the Litani River, the broader U.S.-backed disarmament plan has already made progress. Phase one of Hezbollah disarmament is complete, with over 500 weapon stores surrendered. Hezbollah opposes imposed timelines, and Israel maintains its border presence. The odds for Israel conducting military action in Greater Beirut on April 1 remain high but could adjust as disarmament continues.
The disarmament push matters because it reduces the immediate conditions that would trigger Israeli military action. A YES share for military action is currently priced at 100¢, reflecting certainty. If Hezbollah compliance becomes visible, traders may reprice that contract. The outcome depends on whether Hezbollah cooperates and how Israel responds to the timeline disputes.
Traders should monitor statements from President Aoun and Hezbollah leaders. Any change in Hezbollah’s stance or announcement of further disarmament progress could move the market.
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Israel X Hezbollah Ceasefire| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 96.6% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 93.7% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 1 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 5 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 9 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 19 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 14 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
