The Baltic Dry Index surged to a four-month high as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue. Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization by April 30 is at 0% YES.
Market reaction
Strait closures, naval mine deployments, and vessel attacks have tightened shipping supply, pushing the Baltic Dry Index up 16.6% weekly to 2,567. With 14 days left before the April 30 deadline, traders see no realistic path to resumed traffic flow. The market recorded zero trades in the last 24 hours.
Why it matters
The IRGC continues its toll regime, and Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd maintain booking embargoes, squeezing supply through the strait. The 0% YES odds reflect this: no trader is pricing in a resolution. At 0% YES, a share is effectively worthless unless a dramatic shift occurs. A payout would require rapid de-escalation and policy reversal by Iran, neither of which is underway.
What to watch
Monitor announcements from Iran’s Foreign Ministry or major shipping companies. Any change in Iranian military posture or a lifting of carrier booking embargoes could move this market off zero.
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