The Arbitrum Security Council has frozen 30,766 ETH (around $100 million) linked to the KelpDAO exploit. The market for another $100M+ crypto hack by December 31 sits at 100% YES.
The freeze targets funds attributed to the Lazarus Group, which has been behind 18 DeFi attacks in 2026. This is another confirmation of persistent cross-chain vulnerabilities. With 255 days until resolution, the hack market has seen no volume in the last 24 hours but remains locked at YES.
Odds have held firm at 100% with no significant trade activity. The Arbitrum freeze fits the pattern of large-scale hacks this year, but without new trades, the market price is unchanged. Traders have already priced in the frequency of hacks exceeding $100 million.
The freeze of this sum by Arbitrum signals serious intent but doesn’t escalate state-level cyber conflict beyond North Korea’s ongoing operations. A YES share at 100¢ pays $1, effectively a certainty unless all reports are debunked before December’s end. Odds are unlikely to shift unless a major change in DeFi security architecture occurs.
Watch for potential movement if new attributions come from ZachXBT or TRM Labs, or if another major DeFi platform reports a similar exploit. Those would be the signals worth tracking.
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
Another Crypto Hack Over 100m December 31| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 16 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
