Apple’s iPhone revenue spiked 13% year-over-year in March, driven by strong sales of the lower-priced iPhone 17e. The surge boosted unit sales by 10% but has pressured Apple’s margins due to the popularity of these budget models. The odds of NVIDIA being the largest company by market cap on June 30 sit at 93.5% YES.
Market reaction
The market for NVIDIA’s largest company by June 30 held steady at 93.5% YES, unchanged over the past 24 hours. Traders aren’t treating Apple’s sales growth as a threat to NVIDIA’s position by end of June. Volume was $16,712 in USDC over the past 24 hours, and it takes $42,558 to move the odds 5 percentage points, which points to a thick order book. The largest price move was a modest 1-point spike.
Why it matters
Apple’s market share gains make it the most plausible challenger to NVIDIA’s market cap lead, but the iPhone 17e’s lower margins cut against the revenue story. For Apple to close the gap, it would need sustained profitability improvements, not just unit growth. The flat odds suggest the market sees NVIDIA’s AI-driven valuation as well insulated from smartphone competition through June.
What to watch
Apple’s upcoming WWDC is the next catalyst. Any substantial AI announcements or unexpected product reveals could shift trader sentiment on relative market cap positioning. Buying YES at 94¢ pays $1 if NVIDIA remains the largest, a 1.06x return.
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