Amazon stock hit a new all-time high, buoyed by easing Middle East tensions and strong AWS growth. The Polymarket contract for NVIDIA being the largest company by market cap on June 30 sits at 92% YES.
Amazon’s stock surge is putting pressure on the “largest company by market cap” markets. A new high narrows the gap with NVIDIA, whose June 30 contract holds at 92% YES. AWS continues to report strong growth, and sustained momentum there could erode NVIDIA’s lead in market cap.
The term structure shows consistent confidence in NVIDIA through June, with no change over the past day. On the December 31 contracts, Microsoft, Alphabet, and others hover at just 0.9% YES. The June market is thick: it takes $42,558 to move the odds 5 points, which signals solid institutional support.
Amazon’s move, driven by eased geopolitical risks and AWS’s 24% YoY growth, could close the market cap gap. At 92%, a YES share on NVIDIA’s June position costs 92¢ and pays 1.08x. Traders need to weigh Amazon’s trajectory against that thin return.
Watch NVIDIA’s Q1 earnings and any geopolitical developments affecting global supply chains. Continued AWS growth or further geopolitical stabilization could pull Amazon closer to NVIDIA’s market cap.
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Largest Company End Of June 712| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 92% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 0.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 2.6% | — | — | Trade → |
| September 30 | 10.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 17.5% | — | — | Trade → |
