An airstrike targeted an Iranian Revolutionary Guard site in Alborz Province, escalating the US-Israeli military campaign. The odds of US forces entering Iran by April 30 have risen to 66% YES, up from 55% yesterday.
US-Israeli strikes in central Iran have traders reconsidering the likelihood of ground forces entering Iran. The April 30 market saw significant movement, rebounding to 66% YES after a 6-point drop earlier today. The December 31 market also shows increased confidence at 74.5% YES, up from 64% yesterday.
Traders expect a major development by year-end, with a 9-point increase from April to December. The April 30 market shows strong interest, with volume at $2,338,269 in USDC. It takes $185,131 to move the price 5 points, indicating deep market engagement.
Traders view the airstrike as a serious escalation, not mere noise. The strike on an IRGC site suggests deeper military involvement, potentially leading to US ground operations in Iran. A YES share for April 30 at 66¢ pays $1 if resolved, offering a 1.5x return. Investors betting on this outcome anticipate further escalations or announcements about ground operations within the next 28 days.
Watch for Pentagon briefings and statements from CENTCOM or Congress. Confirmation of US troop movements or increased rhetoric about ground operations would likely raise the odds.
Markets Impacted
- US forces enter Iran by March 31? — currently 0.1% YES
- US forces enter Iran by April 30? — currently 65.5% YES
- US forces enter Iran by December 31? — currently 74.5% YES
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Add us on Google Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information, see our Editorial Policy. Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 31 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 65.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 74.5% | — | — | Trade → |
