$760 million in oil shorts were placed just 20 minutes before President Trump announced the Strait of Hormuz was open for traffic, with the U.S.-Iran ceasefire set to expire in five days. The market for US escorts through Hormuz by April 30 sits at 18%, down from 24% in the last 24 hours.
Market reaction
The Trump lifting the blockade by May 31 market holds at 90%. Traders are pricing in de-escalation following the reopening announcement. Liquidity is modest: daily actual USDC traded at $6,939, with $2,110 required to move odds by 5 points. A 2-point drop hit at 3:15 AM, and the largest move in the blockade market was a 4-point drop, both showing sensitivity to large trades at thin volume.
Why it matters
The reopening of the Strait without U.S. escort involvement lowers the probability of near-term military intervention. The escort market dropping 6 points in 24 hours reflects this directly. The timing of the oil shorts (20 minutes before the announcement) raises questions about information asymmetry and whether traders had advance knowledge of the reopening.
What to watch
A YES share in the escort market at 18¢ pays $1 if resolved, a 5.5x return. That bet requires either a rapid breakdown in talks or unexpected naval activity. Key triggers: official confirmations of mine removal by Iran, statements from CENTCOM on naval operations, and Trump’s next public address, particularly any concrete steps toward lifting the blockade.
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Us Escorts Commercial Ship Through Hormuz March 31| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 19.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | 90% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 17, 2026 | 2.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 19, 2026 | 22.5% | — | — | Trade → |