Over $350 million in crypto shorts were liquidated in the past 24 hours, adding momentum to Bitcoin’s recent rally. Bitcoin reaching $80,000 in April sits at 80.5% YES, up from 44% yesterday.
The liquidation wave suggests a short squeeze that could push Bitcoin higher. With ongoing US-Iran tensions and oil prices past $100 per barrel, Bitcoin’s price action is increasingly tied to geopolitical developments. The Bitcoin $80,000 market has $105,235 in actual USDC changing hands daily. The odds are up from 31% last week.
The $150,000 target sits at just 0.1% YES. That sub-market trades only $328 USDC daily, showing limited belief in that kind of move within the timeframe. The gap between the $80,000 and $150,000 targets suggests traders expect a real but bounded rally, not an extreme breakout.
Trading volume tells a different story than face value figures. The $80,000 target has $261,995 in face value, but the real liquidity signal is the $24,792 needed to move the price 5 points, which points to institutional-level interest. The largest recent move was a 5-point spike at 8:48 AM, right after the short liquidation news broke.
Bitcoin’s sensitivity to macroeconomic and geopolitical factors is on full display, with traders watching for a breakout amid ongoing Middle East hostilities. At 80.5% YES, buying a share at 80¢ pays $1 if Bitcoin hits $80,000, for a 1.25x return. That bet requires the geopolitical climate to keep fueling bullish sentiment.
Watch for statements from BlackRock and MicroStrategy, and for US-Iran developments, which could move Bitcoin’s price from here.
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $80,000 | 80.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| $150,000 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
