About 20,000 sailors are stranded in the Persian Gulf as escalating conflict shuts down the Strait of Hormuz. The chance of Iran targeting at least two ships by April 30 is at 68% YES, up from 19% yesterday.
The surge follows recent IRGC drone swarms and ship seizures. Traders in the Iran ship targeting market have pushed odds up 49 points in a single day, pricing in further escalation within the next six days. The market trades $6,276 in face value daily, with just $101 needed to shift odds by 5 percentage points, meaning it’s thin and sensitive to large orders.
The Strait of Hormuz traffic market sits at 15.5% YES for traffic normalizing by May 15, down from 20% a day ago. The ongoing blockade and increased military activity make a quick resolution unlikely. It takes $4,658 to move odds here 5 points, showing deeper liquidity and more entrenched positions.
Volume at $36,459 in actual USDC traded daily for the Strait of Hormuz traffic market points to traders pricing in prolonged disruption. Continued missile and drone exchanges are reportedly depleting regional defenses.
The 49-point single-day jump in the ship targeting market, combined with falling odds on traffic normalization, reflects traders reacting to specific new threats and military maneuvers rather than background noise. At 68¢, a YES share on Iran targeting two ships pays $1, a 1.47x return. That bet requires Iran to act within six days, which current IRGC activity and the ongoing blockade make plausible.
Watch for IRGC announcements or US Navy movements. A confirmed ship seizure or targeting would push these markets further.
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Bab El Mandeb Strait Effectively Closed| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 1.3% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 16% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 67.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15 | 15.5% | — | — | Trade → |
